♫♪バックグラウンドMUSICに EAGLESがかかっている中 執筆して おります by Spotify ♪♫01 Scroll to bottom for English translation
２０２３年４月８日 土曜日の朝は昨日の雨が上がりさわやかな春の訪れを感じる日の出直後です。今日は燃えるゴミなので朝食を済ませ コーヒーを淹れて出たごみを捨ててからのブログ執筆です。
淹れたてのコーヒーとチョコレート＆ピーナツを傍らに穏やかに今日も始まりました。
昨日は天候も今一つで雨だけでなく風も強かったので今日の空気は綺麗な感じがします。１日テレワークで比較的マイペースで仕事ができたのがストレス解消に？なりました。自宅ではこのブログもそうなのですがパソコンデスクがスタンディングなのでテレワークで仕事中は立っていて疲れると座るという動作のルーティーンで過ごせるのが運動不足にもよいですね。
会社に出ると昼飯はバナナとドライフルーツなのですが、テレワークだと自炊でしっかり食べれるのも良いですね。マーケットの動きも息抜きに見れるし。。コロナ後に急速に普及したこのテレワークが今後も永らえることを願ってやみません。
月曜日から木曜日はオフィスワーク、そして金曜日がご褒美の？テレワークという流れが理想的ですね。
３０年後償還の債券も活路アリ。
最近、米国債券に遅ればせながら参入しております。新発はないので既発債権をSMBC日興証券などで少しずつ買っております。ドル円が１３０円付近という事で一時期の１５０円から見ると落ち着いてきた感がありますかね。ドルは持ってないので円で購入時ドルに換算してもらい購入しております。償還時や利払いはドルでもらいます。購入時にセットしておけば利払いは外貨MMF自動買い付け、償還時は外貨建てと選べるのでうっかりがなく便利ですね。（SMBC日興証券の場合、おそらく他の証券会社も同様と予想します。）
米国債に限らずですが、国債は長期が基本です。既発債なので償還ま近かのものもあります。２０２４年とか２０２５年とかならすぐに償還を迎えるイメージができます。
利子を受け取るものは（ストリップス債以外）既発債の場合、経過利子の支払いがあるのですね。
例えば２月と８月に利払いがある債権の場合で４月に購入した場合、２月から３月の間はその債権を売ってくれた人に利子受け取りの権利があるので２か月分の利子を新しく買った購入者が売ってくれた人に支払うという。
株と違い既発債権は相対取引なので取引が成立しないこともあり、最初のころはこれが足かせになりました。
大きなロットで注文を出してしまったせいか、SMBC日興証券からメールで
「 市場変動により、取引成立しませんでした。」などと断り文句を何度かいただきました。
その後、ロットを小さくしていくつもの債券に分けてトライしたところ
「 お客様の既発外国債券注文が約定しましたのでご連絡いたします。」
と取引成立を知らせるメールが来るようになりました。スマホのアプリからも注文出来て今は株だけでなく債券取引も本当に楽になったのでしょうね。ちょっと前までおそらくは電話して注文していたのでしょうから。会社員の場合は昼休みくらいしか売り買いできなかったのでしょうね。
国債は長期が基本なので既発債であっても２０４４年償還、もっと先だと２０５３年償還なども普通にあります。２０５３年だとさすがに自分の場合だとシニアになっており もしかしたらこの世にいない可能性も？と脳裏をよぎります(笑)
米国国債（ストリップス債）
0％ 38.50 1000USD 2052/02/15 － *AA+(S&P)/
*Aaa(Moody’s)3.33％ 1000USD 28年11ヶ月
例えば上記ストリップス債の場合、利払いは無しですが額面の３８．５％で購入でき利率にすると３．３３％になります。償還が２０５２年２月１５日なので２８年１１か月保有した場合です。最低取引額は１，０００ドルです。
約３０年を利率３．３３％で持ち続けても損はないのでしょうが、債券価格の上昇など市場変動があった場合は自分が購入した時の反対の立場で証券会社で売っても良いのです。最近YouTubeでも債権の購入について多くの動画がアップされているように買いのチャンスである（あった？）ことは素人目に見ても歴然です。米国金利の利上げがこれ以上続くのかなどアナリストの争点でもあります。利率が４％近いものがなくなってきた感があるのでピークは過ぎているのかもしれません。（投資を行われる際は、関係書類等をご覧になり、閲覧者の投資目的、財産の状況および税務上の取扱いを検討した上で、ご自身の判断で行うようお願い申し上げます。）
円でドルにエントリーする場合は損益分岐点が１ドルいくらでとかいろいろな議論もあります。
仮に償還日まで持ち続けたとしてその時ドル円の環境が良くないと円転できません。例えば１ドル１３０円で買って償還日に１ドル１００円であった場合などはどうするのでしょうか。
❶そのままドルで持ち続ける。（投資はまだ続くと粘る）
❷円転し普通に使う。（投資に成功しなかったことを受け入れる）
２択とした場合でも❶の選択肢は分かれます。
ドルで持ち続ける場合の選択肢は
A：外貨MMFにして持ち続ける。
B：他の米国債券に乗り換える。
C：米株を買い付ける。
D：相続財産として後世に引き継ぐ。
いずれドル円はドル高の方向（１５０円とか）に行くことを期待しての行動です。
Aの外貨MMF選択肢を選ぶ場合は比較的遠くない将来に円安が来ることを想定した場合でしょうかね。スピード感が株や債券よりも早いMMFの特性を生かした戦略です。
Bの債券乗り換えは既発債権の残存年数にもよりますので１，２年から３０年と選択の幅が広いように思います。今の２０代とかでないとさらに３０年先となり現世で使うチャンスはなさそうですね(笑)
Cの米国株はリスクを一番とった戦術でしょうか。値動きプラス、ドル円の相場観が必要なので。
Dの相続財産として引き継ぐ場合は、もし時価会計で行えるのならば課税額を圧縮できそうですかね。１ドル１３０円で買い付けたが２～３０年後償還して１ドル１００だとすると大分ディスカウントされて計上されますので。さらなる勉強が求められます。
２～３０年後どころか来年であっても相場の変動、こればっかりは分かりませんのでそれぞれのリスク許容範囲で行うのが良いかもですね。
３０年後償還の債券も活路アリ。
Bonds redeemable after 30 years What’s the point of buying such a bond? ～There is a solution!
April 8, 2023 Saturday morning is just after sunrise, a refreshing spring day after yesterday’s rain. It’s burnable trash today, so I’m writing this blog after I’ve finished breakfast, brewed coffee, and thrown away the garbage that came out.
I started the day peacefully with freshly brewed coffee and chocolate and peanuts by my side.
Yesterday the weather was not so good, not only rainy but also windy, so today’s air feels clean and fresh. I was able to work at my own pace for the day, which helped relieve some stress. At home, my computer desk is standing, as is this blog, so I can stand while teleworking and sit down when I get tired, which is good for my exercise routine.
When I go to the office, I have only bananas and dried fruits for lunch, but it is good that I can cook and eat well when I telework. I can also watch the market movements after a break. I hope that teleworking, which has spread rapidly after Corona, will be around for a long time to come.
Monday through Thursday I work in the office, and Friday is my reward? I think it would be ideal to have Monday through Thursday as office work and Fridays as teleworking.
Bonds redeemable after 30 years also have a way of life.
I have recently made a belated entry into U.S. bonds. I have been buying some existing bonds at SMBC Nikko Securities and other securities companies. The dollar is now around 130 yen, which seems to have calmed down from the 150 yen it was at one time. Since I don’t have US dollars, I buy in Yen and have them converted to US dollars at the time of purchase. I receive the redemption and interest payments in dollars. If I set this option at the time of purchase, I can choose between automatic purchase of foreign currency MMFs for interest payments and foreign currency for redemption, which is convenient and prevents me from being careless. (In the case of SMBC Nikko Securities, we expect other securities companies to do the same.)
Not only U.S. Treasuries, but also government bonds are basically long-term. Some of them are already issued and are about to be redeemed, so you can imagine that they will be redeemed soon, say in 2024 or 2025.
So, for those that receive interest (other than split bonds), there is a transitional interest payment in the case of existing bonds.
For example, if a bond has interest payments in February and August, and you purchased it in April, the buyer who sold it to you has the right to receive interest from February to March, so the new buyer pays two months’ worth of interest to the seller.
Unlike stocks, existing credits are traded on a relative basis, so transactions sometimes did not go through, and this was a stumbling block in the beginning.
Perhaps because I placed an order for a large lot, I received an e-mail from SMBC Nikko Securities saying
Due to market fluctuations, the transaction was not executed. I received several refusals from SMBC Nikko Securities, such as “Due to market fluctuations, the transaction was not executed.
What do you mean by market fluctuation?
After that, we tried smaller lots and split the order into several bonds.
The message “We are writing to inform you that your existing foreign bond order has been executed.
We are pleased to inform you that your existing foreign bond order has been executed.”
and an email informing me that the transaction has been executed. I guess it must be really easy to trade bonds as well as stocks now that I can order from an app on my smartphone. Until recently, you probably had to call to place an order. I guess office workers could only buy and sell during their lunch break.
I am not sure if I will be around in 2053, but I will be a senior citizen. I am a senior citizen in 2053, and I may not even exist in this world.
U.S. Government Bonds (Stripped Bonds)
0% 38.50 1000USD 2052/02/15 – *AA+(S&P)/
*Aaa(Moody’s)
3.33% 1000USD 28 years 11 months
For example, the above strips of bonds can be purchased at 38.5% of face value with no interest payments, and the interest rate is 3.33%. The redemption date is February 15, 2052, so the bond would be held for 28 years and 11 months. The minimum transaction amount is $1,000.
Holding the bond for about 30 years at the interest rate of 3.33% may not be a loss, but if there are market fluctuations, such as an increase in the bond price, you can sell the bond at a brokerage firm at the opposite position from when you purchased it. As many videos have been uploaded on YouTube recently about the purchase of bonds, it is (was?) a good opportunity to buy. It is obvious to the layman’s eye that this is (was?) a good buying opportunity. Analysts are also concerned about whether or not the U.S. interest rate will continue to rise. The peak may have passed, as there is a sense that interest rates are no longer near 4%. (When making an investment, we ask that you do so at your own discretion after reviewing the relevant documents and considering the viewer’s investment objectives, financial situation, and tax treatment).
When entering the dollar in yen, there are various discussions about how much the break-even point is per dollar and so on.
Even if you were to hold on to your investment until the redemption date, you would not be able to convert it to yen unless the environment for dollar-yen is favorable at that time. For example, what would you do if you buy an investment at 130 yen per dollar and the price is 100 yen per dollar on the redemption date?
You would continue to hold it in dollars (sticking with it as the investment is still going on). (Stick to the idea that the investment is still going on)
(❷Turn the money into yen and use it normally. (Accept that the investment was not successful)
Even if you have two choices, the first choice is still different.
The options for holding on to your money in dollars are
A: Keep the money in a foreign currency MMF.
B: Switch to other U.S. bonds.
C: Buy US stocks.
D: Pass it on to future generations as an inheritance.
This action is based on the expectation that the dollar will eventually go in the direction of a stronger dollar (say ¥150).
If you choose the foreign currency MMF option in A, you are probably assuming that the yen will weaken in the relatively not-so-distant future. This strategy takes advantage of the characteristics of MMFs, which are faster than stocks and bonds.
The B bond transfer depends on the remaining life of the existing bonds, so there seems to be a wide range of choices from 1 or 2 years to 30 years. Unless you are in your 20s now or something, it is likely to be another 30 years and you will not have a chance to use it in this life lol.
Is C’s U.S. stock the riskiest tactic? Because of the price movement plus the need to have a market view of the dollar.
If the inheritance is inherited at 130 yen per dollar but redeemed after 2 to 30 years at 100 yen per dollar, it would be recorded at a significant discount. Further study is required.
The market fluctuates not only in 2 to 30 years, but even next year, and you never know, so it is best to use your own risk tolerance.
Bonds redeemable after 30 years also have a way of life.
