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本日は２０２２年６月１６日水曜日 日の出直後の都内ですが雨が降り続きそうな１日です。外はけっこうな雨が降り出しているようです。気温は２０度に届かないくらいの予想なので長袖シャツを着てのお出かけになりそうです。今日は所用で日比谷周辺へ出かける予定です。先週末から株式市場は下落を続けて不安定な相場です。NYでは大幅場下落で同時に逆イールドが起こり１０年債と２年債の金利ミスマッチが起こってますし、ドル円は２４年ぶりの１３５円突破ということでボラティリティの大きい相場となってますね。日本の株はこれを引きずる下落相場となっております。が、よく個別銘柄を見ると逆行高の銘柄がちらほらあり 全面安ではないことが窺え、これから直ぐに相場全体が大幅下落にいかないのでは？と感じておりますが皆さんはどのような方向性でしょうか。私事ですが、会社のマッチング拠出が１１月から始まるそうで説明会がオンラインで近日中にあるそうです。ネット検索で学習済みの領域なのでこの説明会には参加しませんが、マッチング拠出かiDeCoかを自由に選択できるようになるとのことで吟味して参加いたします。
ボラティリティの大きい相場といえば、暗号資産のボラもかなりのものですよね。BTC３00万円割れであったりETH１６万円とかで。。海外では暗号資産取引会社のリストラも報じられております。さて、ここで踏ん張るのか更なる下落となるかは大きな関心ごととなりましょうか。
今週の世界の大きな関心ごとといえばFRBの利上げ幅でしょうか。歴史的な高水準にあるインフレ抑止のために０．７５となるか０．５％引き上げとなるかは毎日のようにニュースで取り上げられておりますね。市場はこの件ある程度織り込み済みかとは思われますが、イベント通過までは大きく動けない機関投資家などもあるでしょうからその動向は無視できません。最近、米国超長期債券ファンドのEDVの買い付けを行いましたが、＄１００で刺したのですがちょっと早かったようです。本日＄９４となっております。底値はなかなか掴めませんね。頭と尻尾はくれてやれの大きな気持ちで望むのが肝要かと。弱気相場はまだ始まったばかりという見方もありますかね。
為替といえば最近、AUD円を利確しました。２０１５年から握りしめてスワップを積み重ね いくらか肥沃になっての生還となりました。７年間のホールドにより自身の胆力を熟成する良い機会となりました。円高局面ではマイナス数十万で停滞し続けましたが（別の見方をすれば保有期間の大部分がそれであった。）この円安のトレンドにうまく返り咲き、何とかプラスで幕を閉じました。時間を味方にする投資の重要性が実感できた経験となりましたが、買い方の難しさも実感でき今後のエントリーポイントの見極めの糧となりそうです。
話は変わりますが、アルバイトの時給を昨日都内で確認したのですがコンビニで1,041円くらいですね（東京の最低賃金1,041円）。地方都市では900円くらいなので物価の違い？が感じられます。日本の給料が20年ほとんど上がってないとのことですがアルバイトの時給はそうでもないようで、約20年前はアルバイトの時給は1999年東京で最低賃金698円でした。約1，5倍の増加率です。ちなみに北海道の1999年最低賃金は628円だったので大きな開きはなかったのですが時代とともに差が開いていったようです。それにしても約20年で1，5倍の増加率ってすごいかも～サラリーマンの給与もこれくらいアップしたらうれしいですよね。。。（20万円が1，5倍になると30万円！！）
雨が上がったようです、本日もアクティブにいきましょうか。
Major global interest this week – Fed rate hike range Volatility in crypto assets
Today is Wednesday, June 16, 2022, just after sunrise in Tokyo, and it looks like it will continue to rain. It looks like it will continue to rain. It looks like it is raining quite a bit outside. The temperature is not expected to reach 20 degrees Celsius, so it will be best to wear a long-sleeved shirt. I plan to go out to the Hibiya area for business today. Since the end of last week, the stock market has continued to fall and the market has been unstable: in New York, the market fell sharply, and at the same time, a reverse yield occurred, causing an interest rate mismatch between 10-year and 2-year bonds, and the dollar/yen broke through 135 yen for the first time in 2-4 years. The dollar has been above 135 yen for the first time in 4 years, and the market has become a highly volatile market. The Japanese stock market is in a downtrend, which is dragging the market down. However, a closer look at individual stocks reveals that they are not in a total decline, and I am wondering if the market as a whole is not going to fall sharply soon. What is your view? On a personal note, I heard that the company’s matching contribution program will start in November and that there will be a briefing session online in the near future. I will not be attending this information session as I have already learned about this area through online searches, but I will be able to examine and attend the session as I will be able to freely choose between matching contributions and iDeCo.
Speaking of volatile markets, the volatility of crypto assets is also quite significant, with BTC under 3 million yen, ETH 160,000 yen, and so on. There have also been reports of restructuring of crypto asset trading companies overseas. Now, it will be a matter of great interest whether the market will hold its ground or fall further.
The big question in the world this week is how much the Fed will raise interest rates. Whether the Fed will raise rates by 0.75% or 0.5% to curb inflation, which is at a historically high level, is in the news every day. Although the market seems to have factored in this issue to some extent, some institutional investors may not be able to make major moves until the event passes, so we cannot ignore this trend. Recently, we bought EDV, a U.S. ultra-long term bond fund, at $100, but it seems we were a little early. Today, it is at $94. The bottom is hard to come by. I think it is important to hope with a big heart that the head and tail will be given to us. I think the bear market has only just begun.
Speaking of currency, I recently took a profit on AUDJPY, a swap I’ve been clutching since 2015, and came back somewhat fertile. The seven years of holdings have given me a good opportunity to mature my own courage. The strong yen kept me stuck in the negative hundreds of thousands (or, to put it another way, for most of my holding period), but I successfully bounced back in this weak yen trend. I successfully bounced back into this trend of a weaker yen and managed to end the year in the positive. It was an experience that made me realize the importance of investing with time as an ally, but it also made me realize how difficult it is to buy and will be food for thought in determining entry points in the future.
I checked the hourly wage for part-time workers in Tokyo yesterday and found that it is about 1,041 yen at a convenience store (Tokyo’s minimum wage is 1,041 yen). (Tokyo’s minimum wage is 1,041 yen.) In regional cities, it is about 900 yen. I can feel the difference in cost of living. The hourly wage for part-time workers is not so different from the minimum wage in Tokyo, which was 698 yen in 1999. This is an increase of about 1.5 times. Incidentally, the minimum wage in Hokkaido in 1999 was 628 yen, so there was not a large gap between the two, but it seems that the gap has widened over time. It would be great if salaried workers’ salaries could increase by this much. (If 200,000 yen increases 1.5 times, it becomes 300,000 yen!)
The rain seems to have stopped, so let’s be active today.
*** Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version) ***
